Analysis of influencing factors
1、 Favorable factors
(1) The government promotes the modernization of green buildings
At present, the modernization process of China's green building industry is speeding up. Relying on the industrialization pilot, the promotion of eco-friendly, quality, affordable and comfortable steel structure buildings is becoming the main melody of new houses in the future. On February 6, 2016, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued several opinions on Further Strengthening the management of urban planning and construction, pointing out that "develop new construction methods, vigorously promote prefabricated buildings, and strive to make prefabricated buildings account for 30% of new buildings in about 10 years. Actively and steadily promote steel structure buildings". On March 5, 2016, Premier Li Keqiang advocated in the 2016 government work report: actively promote green buildings and building materials, vigorously develop steel structures and prefabricated buildings, and improve the signs and quality of construction projects. On September 30, 2016, the State Council issued the guidance on vigorously developing prefabricated buildings, which clearly proposed to increase the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings to 30% in 10 years, and build a number of national prefabricated building production bases. In the 13th five year plan for iron and steel issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology at the end of 2016, it is clearly proposed that the steel consumption of steel structure should reach 20% of the total steel production by 2020. In 2016, the relevant opinions of the state and local governments on steel structure green building have been issued, such as the 13th five year plan for housing and urban rural construction, the guiding opinions of the general office of the State Council on vigorously developing prefabricated buildings, and the implementation opinions of the general office of Zhejiang Provincial People's Government on promoting the development of green building and building industrialization, which clearly takes steel structure green building as one of the main building forms. On February 17, 2017, the opinions of the general office of the State Council on promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the construction industry clearly proposed to promote the modernization of the construction industry, promote intelligent and prefabricated buildings, adhere to standardized design, industrialized production, prefabricated construction, integrated decoration, information management and intelligent application, promote the innovation of construction methods, and vigorously develop prefabricated concrete and steel structure buildings, Strive to increase the proportion of prefabricated buildings in the new construction area to 30% in about 10 years. On May 4, 2017, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 13th five year plan for the development of the construction industry, which clearly pointed out that by 2020, the proportion of urban green buildings in new buildings will reach 50%, the area of newly started fully decorated finished houses will reach 30%, the application proportion of green building materials will reach 40%, and the area of prefabricated buildings will reach 15%.
(two) the one hand "one belt, one road" and "coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei" have brought about important opportunities for development.
The "one belt, one road" policy has led to the construction of infrastructure along the border, accelerating the pace of China's steel structure industry, and the steel structure industry has great potential in overseas markets, infrastructure, green buildings (housing) and other fields. "Coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei" and other national regional development strategies have been strongly promoted. As a typical representative of new industries and green buildings replacing traditional buildings, steel structure industry will maintain sustained and stable growth under the background of continuous growth of national infrastructure investment and support and advocacy of national industrial policies. Steel structure building itself has the basic characteristics of industrial construction. In recent years, a number of well-known enterprises represented by listed companies have gradually formed in the domestic steel structure industry. They have made great progress in popularizing ideas, leading market consumption, design ideas, technology accumulation, problem solving, construction level and talent cultivation. They have increased their R & D investment, A certain scale of steel structure building system and steel structure housing system with independent intellectual property rights have been launched, and model projects have been completed. Some of them have been popularized and used in a large area. Steel structure housing has shown a situation in which a hundred flowers bloom in China.
(3) Usher in the great development of the industry
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2016, the total output value of the national construction industry was 19356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. From the perspective of new projects, the total planned investment of new projects in 2016 was 49329.5 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9% year-on-year. The total amount of building energy consumption in China is increasing year by year, accounting for about 34% of the total energy consumption. The development of green buildings will become the general trend. At present, many real estate enterprises in China have begun to set foot in the field of green buildings, such as Vanke, Wanda and Greenland. Some enterprises have focused on green real estate since earlier, and their residential products meet the green indicators of health, environmental protection, comfort and energy saving. Landsea green real estate is a typical representative. At present, about 2000 green buildings have been built in China, mainly in economically developed areas such as Jiangsu, Guangzhou, Shandong, Beijing and Shanghai. As people have higher and higher personalized requirements for comfort, health and economy of future houses, green buildings will be further popularized. As an incremental market of the construction industry, green building will usher in the great development of the industry. Green building has developed to a new stage. It will integrate new technologies such as the Internet, the Internet of things, cloud computing and big data, comprehensively realize energy conservation, water conservation and material conservation, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, comprehensively improve the quality of green buildings, and make green buildings more ecological and humanized. This not only brings opportunities for integrated development to related industries, but also gives the construction industry itself a broader development space.
2、 Adverse factors
(1) A complete working system has not been formed
The technical standards, process systems, policies and measures of green buildings in China are separated from the planning and design, construction and production, material development, demolition and recycling of buildings, and there is no set of working system of mutual support and cooperation.
(2) Unable to meet the needs of consumers
At this stage, China's construction industry has not changed the extensive mode of production, and building energy consumption has become the weakness of China's economic development. At present, there is a big gap between green buildings and consumers' requirements for housing quality in terms of scale, quantity and operation quality. Taking 2015 as an example, the total area of projects with green building signs accounted for less than 5% of the total area of urban completed projects (including residential and public buildings), and the total area of green buildings with operation signs accounted for about 5% of the total area of green buildings. It is predicted that by the end of 2014, 2559 projects in China had obtained green building evaluation marks, with a total construction area of more than 280 million square meters; By the end of 2015, a total of 4071 projects in China had obtained green building evaluation marks, with a construction area of more than 470 million square meters; By the end of 2016, a total of 7235 construction projects in China had obtained green building evaluation marks, with a construction area of more than 800 million square meters. It is estimated that by the end of 2018, the area of construction projects with green building evaluation marks in China will reach 1.86 billion square meters; By the end of 2022, it will reach 6.5 billion square meters.